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Alcorcon vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
2/15/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon41%
×Draw28%
Real Murcia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.29
Real Murcia
1.10

Alcorcon creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
68%
Alcorcon or Real Murcia
72%
Draw or Real Murcia
59%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
18%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
72%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
37%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
14%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
67%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
30%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
56%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alcorcon scores more
41%
level
28%
Real Murcia scores more
32%

Alcorcon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Alcorcon 1–0 Real Murcia

Alcorcon beat Real Murcia 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.