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Real Murcia II vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Germán Lidón 65'
Vicente Meca 1'
Juan Arcas 83'
Sergio Jiménez 73'
Belencoso 15'
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Murcia II48%
×Draw26%
La Unión Atlético26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.50
La Unión Atlético
1.04

Real Murcia II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
74%
Real Murcia II or La Unión Atlético
74%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
52%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
24%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
78%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
44%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
19%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
65%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
28%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
65%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
48%
level
26%
La Unión Atlético scores more
26%

Real Murcia II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Vicente Meca
15'
Belencoso
46'
Ángel García← Hamza
46'
Javier Lopez← Díez
46'
Fernando Navarro← Piqueras
60'
Germán Lidón← Ismael Ferrer
65'
Germán Lidón
70'
Omar Saura← David Valdeolivas
73'
Sergio Jiménez
75'
Francisco Matallana← Belencoso
75'
Juan Arcas← Nico González
83'
Juan Arcas
85'
Bryam Barreat← Jorge Palacios
89'
Juan Acosta← Chema
Real
La
Victor Martinez
Martinez
Julio Algar
Algar
Iván Zaragoza
Zaragoza
Adrián Aguirre
Aguirre
David Valdeolivas
▼
Valdeoliv
Sergio Jiménez
⚽
Jiménez
A. Simpara
Simpara
Schuster
Schuster
Belencoso
⚽
▼
Belencoso
Nico González
▼
González
Chema
▼
Chema
Andrés
Andrés
Josévi
Josévi
José Sánchez
Sánchez
Jorge Palacios
▼
Palacios
Alberto Navarro
Navarro
Hamza
▼
Hamza
Ismael Ferrer
▼
Ferrer
Díez
▼
Díez
Vicente Meca
⚽
Meca
Piqueras
▼
Piqueras
Raúl Botía
Botía
David Sánchez
Manager: David Sánchez
46'▲Ángel García←▼Hamza
46'▲Javier Lopez←▼Díez
46'▲Fernando Navarro←▼Piqueras
60'▲Germán Lidón←▼Ismael Ferrer
85'▲Bryam Barreat←▼Jorge Palacios

Real Murcia II substitutes

GarcíaLopezNavarroLidónBarreat
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
70'▲Omar Saura←▼David Valdeolivas
75'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Belencoso
75'▲Juan Arcas←▼Nico González
89'▲Juan Acosta←▼Chema

La Unión Atlético substitutes

SauraMatallanaArcasAcosta

Real Murcia II 2 – 3 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Real Murcia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 12, 2021.

Goals: Vicente Meca (1'), Belencoso (15'), Germán Lidón (65'), Sergio Jiménez (73'), Juan Arcas (83').

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.