La Unión Atlético 1–0 Real Murcia II

La Unión Atlético

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Murcia II

Vitolo 18'

11/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

La Unión Atlético47%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Unión AtléticoExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

La Unión Atlético

1.38

Real Murcia II

0.93

La Unión Atlético creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

0.62

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

La Unión Atlético

1.60

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

La Unión Atlético

0.62

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Unión Atlético ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Unión Atlético or draw

75%

La Unión Atlético or Real Murcia II

73%

Draw or Real Murcia II

53%

Winning margin

La Unión Atlético wins by 2+

23%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

Team goals

La Unión Atlético 1+ goals

75%

La Unión Atlético 2+ goals

40%

La Unión Atlético 3+ goals

16%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

61%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

24%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)

65%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Unión Atlético at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Unión Atlético attack 1.60 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + La Unión Atlético defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Unión Atlético scores more

47%

level

27%

Real Murcia II scores more

25%

La Unión Atlético at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Unión Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Vitolo

46'

Antonio Toral← Alberto Navarro

46'

Ismael Ferrer← Ángel García

46'

José Sánchez← Héctor Fernández

60'

Fran Cortés← Belencoso

61'

Tangu Gastão← David Valverde

77'

Javi López← Javi Vergara

79'

Higón← David Valdeolivas

79'

Diego Gil← Vitolo

87'

Paco Collados← Diego Gámiz

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Vitolo

Tato

▼

Belencoso

Manager: Manuel Palomeque

60'▲Fran Cortés←▼Belencoso

79'▲Higón←▼David Valdeolivas

79'▲Diego Gil←▼Vitolo

87'▲Paco Collados←▼Diego Gámiz

La Unión Atlético substitutes

CortésHigónGilCollados

Manager: David Sánchez

46'▲Antonio Toral←▼Alberto Navarro

46'▲Ismael Ferrer←▼Ángel García

46'▲José Sánchez←▼Héctor Fernández

61'▲Tangu Gastão←▼David Valverde

77'▲Javi López←▼Javi Vergara

Real Murcia II substitutes

ToralFerrerSánchezGastãoLópez

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Real Murcia II

La Unión Atlético beat Real Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 27, 2022.

Goals: Vitolo (18').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Unión.

La Unión Atlético vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Unión Atlético vs Real Murcia II