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Real Murcia II vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
5/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Murcia II45%
×Draw26%
Cartagena II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.48
Cartagena II
1.15

Real Murcia II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 27 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
71%
Real Murcia II or Cartagena II
74%
Draw or Cartagena II
55%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
22%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
77%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
43%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
19%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
68%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
32%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
60%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
45%
level
26%
Cartagena II scores more
29%

Real Murcia II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Cartagena II

Cartagena II beat Real Murcia II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia in Murcia.