Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cartagena II vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
4/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II45%
×Draw27%
Real Murcia II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.39
Real Murcia II
1.04

Cartagena II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
72%
Cartagena II or Real Murcia II
73%
Draw or Real Murcia II
55%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
21%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
16%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
65%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
28%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
61%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cartagena II scores more
45%
level
27%
Real Murcia II scores more
28%

Cartagena II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena II 2–0 Real Murcia II

Cartagena II beat Real Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.