Real Murcia II 3–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Real Murcia II

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

José Luna 76', 69'

Tangu Gastão 73'

Raúl Tornel 55'

4/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Real Murcia II55%

×Draw24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.91

Real Murcia II

1.67

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.91

Real Murcia II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 78 away

1.89

creates per match

0.85

0.97

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

80%

Real Murcia II or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

76%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

45%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

81%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

50%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

60%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

23%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

73%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

55%

level

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

20%

Real Murcia II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Francisco Hernández← Felipe Valverde

46'

Manu Rubio← Ángel García

55'

Raúl Tornel

60'

I. Lundgren← Lilu Sánchez

60'

José Luna← Javi Vergara

62'

Antonio Santiago← Raúl Botía

62'

Rodrigo Fernández← Alberto Navarro

69'

José Luna

73'

Tangu Gastão

75'

Pablo Guillen← Raúl Tornel

75'

Jesús Ros← Lorenzo Lopez

76'

José Luna

80'

Nelson← Alejandro Pascual

80'

Asensio Miñarro← Alberto Martínez

Real

CAP

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Manager: David Sánchez

46'▲Manu Rubio←▼Ángel García

60'▲I. Lundgren←▼Lilu Sánchez

60'▲José Luna←▼Javi Vergara

62'▲Antonio Santiago←▼Raúl Botía

62'▲Rodrigo Fernández←▼Alberto Navarro

Real Murcia II substitutes

RubioLundgrenLunaSantiagoFernández

Manager: Francisco Lorca

26'▲Francisco Hernández←▼Felipe Valverde

75'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Raúl Tornel

75'▲Jesús Ros←▼Lorenzo Lopez

80'▲Nelson←▼Alejandro Pascual

80'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Alberto Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

HernándezGuillenRosNelsonMiñarro