CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–1 Real Murcia II

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia II

Ángel García 52'

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia34%

×Draw29%

Real Murcia II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.14

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.09

Real Murcia II

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

1.03

creates per match

1.24

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

63%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Real Murcia II

71%

Draw or Real Murcia II

66%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

66%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

10%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

68%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

32%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

48%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

34%

level

29%

Real Murcia II scores more

37%

Real Murcia II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Bryam Barreat← Ismael Ferrer

52'

Ángel García

68'

Fernando Carmona← Jaime

68'

Diego Cárceles← Pablo Guillen

73'

Flavio Audisio← Manu Rubio

85'

Germán Lidón← Bryam Barreat

85'

Jorge Sánchez← Ángel García

88'

Trucha← David

88'

Javi Muñoz← Alberto Martínez

CAP

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

68'▲Fernando Carmona←▼Jaime

68'▲Diego Cárceles←▼Pablo Guillen

88'▲Trucha←▼David

88'▲Javi Muñoz←▼Alberto Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

CarmonaCárcelesTruchaMuñoz

Manager: David Sánchez

44'▲Bryam Barreat←▼Ismael Ferrer

73'▲Flavio Audisio←▼Manu Rubio

85'▲Germán Lidón←▼Bryam Barreat

85'▲Jorge Sánchez←▼Ángel García

Real Murcia II substitutes

BarreatAudisioLidónSánchez