Real Murcia II 0–1 Águilas II: Result & Stats

Real Murcia II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas II

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Real Murcia II48%

×Draw26%

Águilas II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchÁguilas II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Real Murcia II

1.46

Águilas II

1.00

Real Murcia II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 34 away

1.89

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Real Murcia II

1.89

Águilas II

1.03

allows per match

Real Murcia II

0.97

Águilas II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

Águilas II →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw

74%

Real Murcia II or Águilas II

74%

Draw or Águilas II

52%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

24%

Águilas II wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

77%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

43%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

18%

Águilas II 1+ goals

63%

Águilas II 2+ goals

26%

Águilas II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

65%

Águilas II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.46

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Murcia II scores more

48%

level

26%

Águilas II scores more

26%

Real Murcia II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Águilas II

Águilas II beat Real Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.

Real Murcia II vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs Águilas II