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Águilas II vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas II
Águilas II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
3/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Águilas II48%
×Draw26%
Real Murcia II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas II
1.51
Real Murcia II
1.06

Águilas II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Águilas II
1.88
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

Águilas II
0.88
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

Águilas II+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas II ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Águilas II or draw
73%
Águilas II or Real Murcia II
74%
Draw or Real Murcia II
52%

Winning margin

Águilas II wins by 2+
24%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas II 1+ goals
78%
Águilas II 2+ goals
44%
Águilas II 3+ goals
19%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
65%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
29%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Águilas II (draw refunded)
64%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas II attack 1.88 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.51

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Águilas II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Águilas II scores more
48%
level
26%
Real Murcia II scores more
27%

Águilas II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Águilas II 4 – 0 Real Murcia II

Águilas II beat Real Murcia II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.