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Real Monarchs vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
8/31/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 46Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Real Monarchs49%
×Draw23%
OKC Energy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
1.79
OKC Energy
1.28

Real Monarchs creates 40% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.83
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.32
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
73%
Real Monarchs or OKC Energy
77%
Draw or OKC Energy
51%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
27%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
83%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
53%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
26%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
72%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
37%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
64%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.32 · 63 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.83 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.79

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Real Monarchs defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
49%
level
23%
OKC Energy scores more
27%

Real Monarchs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Monarchs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Real Monarchs 2–2 OKC Energy

Real Monarchs and OKC Energy drew 2-2 in USL Championship on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah).