OKC Energy 1–1 Real Monarchs: Result & Stats

OKC Energy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Monarchs

5/19/2019

USL Championship · Round 19Taft Stadium (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

OKC Energy43%

×Draw26%

Real Monarchs31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OKC EnergyExpected goals in this matchReal Monarchs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.17

OKC Energy

1.43

Real Monarchs

1.17

OKC Energy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

1.12

1.21

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

OKC Energy

1.05

Real Monarchs

1.12

allows per match

OKC Energy

1.21

Real Monarchs

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Real Monarchs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw

69%

OKC Energy or Real Monarchs

74%

Draw or Real Monarchs

57%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+

21%

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals

76%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

42%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

17%

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

69%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

33%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

58%

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OKC Energy scores more

43%

level

26%

Real Monarchs scores more

31%

OKC Energy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff