Real Madriz 1–1 Junior Managua: Result & Stats

Real Madriz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Junior Managua

D. Reyes 4'

B. Montiel 88'

9/7/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 7Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Madriz45%

×Draw27%

Junior Managua28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadrizExpected goals in this matchJunior Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.03

Real Madriz

1.38

Junior Managua

1.03

Real Madriz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

0.97

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Real Madriz

0.97

Junior Managua

0.89

allows per match

Real Madriz

1.17

Junior Managua

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madriz+0.00on par

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madriz ↓

Junior Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Madriz or draw

72%

Real Madriz or Junior Managua

73%

Draw or Junior Managua

55%

Winning margin

Real Madriz wins by 2+

21%

Junior Managua wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Madriz 1+ goals

75%

Real Madriz 2+ goals

40%

Real Madriz 3+ goals

16%

Junior Managua 1+ goals

64%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

28%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Madriz (draw refunded)

62%

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madriz at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Junior Managua away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madriz attack 0.97 + Junior Managua defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.38

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Real Madriz defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Madriz scores more

45%

level

27%

Junior Managua scores more

28%

Real Madriz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Madriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Reyes

51'

J. Baltodano← F. Sanchez

52'

M. Cruz← S. Padilla

64'

H. Ardón← K. Díaz

64'

E. Narvaez← J. Rosales

80'

R. Benavides← R. Estrada

84'

K. Espinoza← R. Espinoza

88'

B. Montiel

Real

Junior

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Albergó

64'▲H. Ardón←▼K. Díaz

80'▲R. Benavides←▼R. Estrada

84'▲K. Espinoza←▼R. Espinoza

Real Madriz substitutes

ArdónBenavidesEspinozaSalgadoOrtízAlemánMartínez

Manager: T. Acevedo

51'▲J. Baltodano←▼F. Sanchez

52'▲M. Cruz←▼S. Padilla

64'▲E. Narvaez←▼J. Rosales

Junior Managua substitutes

BaltodanoCruzNarvaezTéllezCarrionCastilloWilson

Primera Division: Real Madriz 1–1 Junior Managua

Real Madriz and Junior Managua drew 1-1 in Primera Division on September 7, 2020.

Goals: D. Reyes (4'), B. Montiel (88').

The match was played at Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza in Somoto.

Real Madriz vs Junior Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Real Madriz 1–1 Junior Managua