Junior Managua 1–0 Real Madriz: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madriz

Á. Hernández 66'

2/15/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 7Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua46%

×Draw25%

Real Madriz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchReal Madriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.14

Junior Managua

1.53

Real Madriz

1.14

Junior Managua creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 73 away

0.89

creates per match

0.78

1.50

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Real Madriz

0.78

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Real Madriz

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Real Madriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Real Madriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

72%

Junior Managua or Real Madriz

75%

Draw or Real Madriz

54%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

23%

Real Madriz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

78%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

45%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

20%

Real Madriz 1+ goals

68%

Real Madriz 2+ goals

32%

Real Madriz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

62%

Real Madriz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Real Madriz away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Real Madriz defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Real Madriz attack 0.78 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Junior Managua scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Madriz scores more

28%

Junior Managua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Junior Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

O. Soto← A. Bermúdez

61'

B. Montiel← M. Zambrana

61'

R. Espinoza← K. Díaz

64'

B. Román← L. Gutiérrez

66'

Á. Hernández

75'

D. Reyes← A. Hernández

Junior

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Acevedo

54'▲O. Soto←▼A. Bermúdez

61'▲B. Montiel←▼M. Zambrana

64'▲B. Román←▼L. Gutiérrez

Junior Managua substitutes

SotoMontielRománErringtonSanchezSequeiraEspinoza

Manager: R. Alvarado

61'▲R. Espinoza←▼K. Díaz

75'▲D. Reyes←▼A. Hernández

Real Madriz substitutes

EspinozaReyesCalderónOrtegaObandoPozoOchoa

Match Recap: Junior Managua vs Real Madriz

Junior Managua beat Real Madriz 1-0 in Primera Division on February 15, 2021.

Goals: Á. Hernández (66').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.

Junior Managua vs Real Madriz — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Junior Managua vs Real Madriz