Real Madriz 4–1 Deportivo Las Sabanas

Real Madriz

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Las Sabanas

2/9/2020

Primera Division · Clausura - 4Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madriz51%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Las Sabanas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MadrizExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Las Sabanas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

Real Madriz

1.46

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.86

Real Madriz creates 70% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

0.96

creates per match

0.58

1.14

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Real Madriz

0.96

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.58

allows per match

Real Madriz

1.14

Deportivo Las Sabanas

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madriz+0.00on par

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madriz ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Madriz or draw

78%

Real Madriz or Deportivo Las Sabanas

73%

Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas

49%

Winning margin

Real Madriz wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madriz 1+ goals

77%

Real Madriz 2+ goals

43%

Real Madriz 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Madriz (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madriz at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madriz attack 0.96 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Real Madriz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Madriz scores more

51%

level

27%

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

22%

Real Madriz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Madriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff