Deportivo Las Sabanas 0–2 Real Madriz

Deportivo Las Sabanas

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madriz

8/29/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 4Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas54%

×Draw26%

Real Madriz20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Las SabanasExpected goals in this matchReal Madriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.83

Deportivo Las Sabanas

1.55

Real Madriz

0.83

Deportivo Las Sabanas creates 87% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 74 away

0.94

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.94

Real Madriz

0.78

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.89

Real Madriz

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Real Madriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Real Madriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw

80%

Deportivo Las Sabanas or Real Madriz

74%

Draw or Real Madriz

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

28%

Real Madriz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

20%

Real Madriz 1+ goals

56%

Real Madriz 2+ goals

20%

Real Madriz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

73%

Real Madriz (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Real Madriz away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Real Madriz defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Madriz attack 0.78 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

54%

level

26%

Real Madriz scores more

20%

Deportivo Las Sabanas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Las Sabanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff