Real Madrid W 0–1 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Real Madrid W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Häcken W

R. Kafaji 63'

1/30/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Real Madrid W63%

×Draw20%

Häcken W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.98

Real Madrid W

2.13

Häcken W

0.98

Real Madrid W creates 117% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

2.44

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.44

Häcken W

0.91

allows per match

Real Madrid W

1.04

Häcken W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

84%

Real Madrid W or Häcken W

80%

Draw or Häcken W

37%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

40%

Häcken W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

63%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

35%

Häcken W 1+ goals

62%

Häcken W 2+ goals

26%

Häcken W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

79%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Häcken W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.44 + Häcken W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.13

Häcken W attack 0.91 + Real Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

63%

level

20%

Häcken W scores more

16%

Real Madrid W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Olga Carmona

Real Madrid W · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

22'

31'

45'

56'

Olaya Rodríguez← Maite Oroz

63'

R. Kafaji↳ M. Jusu Bah

64'

S. Bruun← F. Olofsson

64'

Claudia Zornoza← H. Raso

64'

L. Caicedo← C. Møller

69'

E. Rubensson← C. Larisey

69'

A. Sandberg← H. Wijk

76'

M. Bergman-Lundin← J. Fossdalsá

76'

F. Schröder← A. Anvegård

84'

S. Svava← Kathellen

87'

A. Csiki← R. Kafaji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealHäcken

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots7

7Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked1

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

443Total Passes342

368Accurate Passes260

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1