Häcken W 2–1 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Häcken W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid W

K. Kosola 76'

R. Kafaji 59'

S. Bruun 9'

11/23/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Häcken W30%

×Draw23%

Real Madrid W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Häcken WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.74

Häcken W

1.36

Real Madrid W

1.74

Real Madrid W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.08

creates per match

1.56

1.92

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Häcken W

1.08

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Häcken W

1.92

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Häcken W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Häcken W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Häcken W or draw

54%

Häcken W or Real Madrid W

77%

Draw or Real Madrid W

70%

Winning margin

Häcken W wins by 2+

13%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Häcken W 1+ goals

74%

Häcken W 2+ goals

39%

Häcken W 3+ goals

16%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

82%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

52%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Häcken W (draw refunded)

39%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Häcken W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Häcken W attack 1.08 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Häcken W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Häcken W scores more

30%

level

23%

Real Madrid W scores more

46%

Real Madrid W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Olga Carmona

Real Madrid W · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

55'

56'

59'

60'

A. Masaka← F. Schröder

61'

Oihane Hernández← K. Robles

61'

H. Raso← Athenea del Castillo

76'

K. Kosola↳ R. Kafaji

79'

C. Møller← S. Bruun

82'

Marisa García← Maite Oroz

82'

Kathellen← S. Svava

84'

Marika Bergman-Lundin

87'

C. Larisey← R. Kafaji

90+1'

Anna Sandberg

90+7'

Olga Carmona

90+6'

H. Wijk← E. Junttila-Nelhage

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HäckenReal

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots16

4Corners10

8Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target4

2Off Target8

2Blocked4

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

352Total Passes506

250Accurate Passes418

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2