Real Madrid W 2–1 FC Levante Badalona W

Real Madrid W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Levante Badalona W

Claudia Zornoza 90+8'

H. Raso 85'

Irina Uribe 9'

4/28/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Real Madrid W65%

×Draw20%

FC Levante Badalona W15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.89

Real Madrid W

2.12

FC Levante Badalona W

0.89

Real Madrid W creates 138% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 60 away

2.29

creates per match

0.88

0.90

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Real Madrid W

2.29

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Real Madrid W

0.90

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Madrid W or draw

85%

Real Madrid W or FC Levante Badalona W

80%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

35%

Winning margin

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

41%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

62%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

35%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

59%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

22%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

82%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.12

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Real Madrid W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Madrid W scores more

65%

level

20%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

15%

Real Madrid W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Teresa Abelleira

Real Madrid W · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

Irina Uribe↳ A. Poljak

38'

Melanie Serrano

45+3'

Claudia Zornoza

46'

Kathellen← Maite Oroz

46'

C. Møller← S. Svava

46'

Olga Carmona← Rocío Gálvez

46'

Berta Bou← Melanie Serrano

46'

D. Čonč← A. Lahmari

63'

Nerea Carmona← Bárbara Latorre

68'

Dominika Čonč

72'

H. Raso← Athenea del Castillo

77'

Cristina Baudet← Irina Uribe

80'

Caroline Møller

80'

N. Feller← S. Bruun

84'

Tang Jiali← Laura Martínez

85'

H. Raso↳ Claudia Zornoza

90+1'

Nayluisa Cáceres

90+8'

Claudia Zornoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealFC

Overview

80%Possession20%

16Total Shots3

13Corners1

6Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots3

8On Target1

4Off Target2

4Blocked0

11Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

80%Possession20%

663Total Passes174

568Accurate Passes78

86%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0