FC Levante Badalona W 1–3 Real Madrid W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Real Madrid W

Ana González 19'

Alba Redondo 90+7', 89'

N. Feller 76'

11/9/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 9Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W19%

×Draw22%

Real Madrid W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.92

FC Levante Badalona W

0.97

Real Madrid W

1.92

Real Madrid W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 92 away

1.02

creates per match

2.29

1.55

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

41%

FC Levante Badalona W or Real Madrid W

78%

Draw or Real Madrid W

81%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

6%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

62%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

25%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

7%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

85%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

57%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

24%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

19%

level

22%

Real Madrid W scores more

59%

Real Madrid W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Alba Redondo

Real Madrid W · F

8.6

Match Events

19'

Ana González↳ G. Chebbak

22'

Teresa Abelleira

45+2'

Macarena Portales Nieto

46'

N. Feller← C. Møller

46'

F. Angeldahl← Teresa Abelleira

46'

C. Weir← Eva Navarro

62'

Oihane Hernández← Antônia

63'

Ana Gonzalez

67'

Irina Uribe← Lee Young-Ju

73'

S. Bruun← L. Caicedo

76'

N. Feller↳ Olga Carmona

77'

Laura Martínez← María Llompart

78'

Julia Mora

84'

M. Nicoli← Macarena Portales

87'

Olga Carmona

87'

Melanie Leupolz

89'

Alba Redondo↳ N. Feller

90+8'

Morgane Nicoli

90+3'

Sonia García Majarín

90+10'

Caroline Weir

90+7'

Alba Redondo↳ C. Weir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCReal

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots14

4Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots14

3On Target4

2Off Target8

0Blocked2

1Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

285Total Passes485

193Accurate Passes394

68%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

5Yellow Cards4

4Offsides8