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Real Madrid U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Real Madrid U19
Real Madrid U19advanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
2/28/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Round of 16Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Madrid U1960%
×Draw20%
RB Leipzig U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid U19
2.15
RB Leipzig U19
1.13

Real Madrid U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Madrid U19
2.67
RB Leipzig U19
1.00

allows per match

Real Madrid U19
1.25
RB Leipzig U19
1.62

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw
81%
Real Madrid U19 or RB Leipzig U19
80%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
40%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+
37%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals
88%
Real Madrid U19 2+ goals
63%
Real Madrid U19 3+ goals
36%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
68%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
31%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
76%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.15

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more
60%
level
20%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
19%

Real Madrid U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Real Madrid U19 2–0 RB Leipzig U19

Real Madrid U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.