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RB Leipzig U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Real Madrid U19
Real Madrid U19
10/25/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RB Leipzig U1914%
×Draw18%
Real Madrid U1968%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig U19
0.94
Real Madrid U19
2.32

Real Madrid U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19
0.83
Real Madrid U19
2.56

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19
2.08
Real Madrid U19
1.04

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par
Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw
32%
RB Leipzig U19 or Real Madrid U19
82%
Draw or Real Madrid U19
86%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
4%
Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
61%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
24%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
7%
Real Madrid U19 1+ goals
90%
Real Madrid U19 2+ goals
67%
Real Madrid U19 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
17%
Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 0.83 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more
14%
level
18%
Real Madrid U19 scores more
68%

Real Madrid U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: RB Leipzig U19 2–3 Real Madrid U19

Real Madrid U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.