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Real Madrid U19 vs Celtic U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Real Madrid U19
Real Madrid U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Celtic U19
Celtic U19
11/2/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Real Madrid U1967%
×Draw18%
Celtic U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid U19
2.50
Celtic U19
1.13

Real Madrid U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Real Madrid U19
2.67
Celtic U19
1.00

allows per match

Real Madrid U19
1.25
Celtic U19
2.33

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par
Celtic U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

Celtic U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw
84%
Real Madrid U19 or Celtic U19
82%
Draw or Celtic U19
33%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+
45%
Celtic U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals
92%
Real Madrid U19 2+ goals
71%
Real Madrid U19 3+ goals
45%
Celtic U19 1+ goals
68%
Celtic U19 2+ goals
31%
Celtic U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Celtic U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Celtic U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + Celtic U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Celtic U19 attack 1.00 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more
67%
level
18%
Celtic U19 scores more
16%

Real Madrid U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid U19 vs Celtic U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Celtic U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.