Celtic U19 0–6 Real Madrid U19: Result & Stats

Celtic U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Real Madrid U19

9/6/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Excelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Celtic U199%

×Draw15%

Real Madrid U1975%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celtic U19Expected goals in this matchReal Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.53

Celtic U19

0.77

Real Madrid U19

2.53

Real Madrid U19 creates 229% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

0.50

creates per match

2.56

2.50

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Celtic U19

0.50

Real Madrid U19

2.56

allows per match

Celtic U19

2.50

Real Madrid U19

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic U19+0.00on par

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Celtic U19 or draw

25%

Celtic U19 or Real Madrid U19

85%

Draw or Real Madrid U19

91%

Winning margin

Celtic U19 wins by 2+

3%

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Celtic U19 1+ goals

54%

Celtic U19 2+ goals

18%

Celtic U19 3+ goals

4%

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

92%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

71%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Celtic U19 (draw refunded)

11%

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic U19 attack 0.50 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.77

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Celtic U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Celtic U19 scores more

9%

level

15%

Real Madrid U19 scores more

75%

Real Madrid U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Celtic U19 0–6 Real Madrid U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Celtic U19 6-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie.

Celtic U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Celtic U19 0–6 Real Madrid U19