Real Madrid III 2–0 Móstoles: Result & Stats

Real Madrid III

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Móstoles

Esteban Aparicio 70', 40' (pen)

3/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III58%

×Draw24%

Móstoles18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.80

Real Madrid III

1.69

Móstoles

0.80

Real Madrid III creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

2.29

creates per match

1.30

0.29

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Real Madrid III

2.29

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

Real Madrid III

0.29

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Móstoles →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw

82%

Real Madrid III or Móstoles

76%

Draw or Móstoles

42%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

33%

Móstoles wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

82%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

50%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

24%

Móstoles 1+ goals

55%

Móstoles 2+ goals

19%

Móstoles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

77%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Madrid III scores more

58%

level

24%

Móstoles scores more

18%

Real Madrid III at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

David Cuenca← Jaime Calleja

40'

Esteban AparicioPenalty

68'

S. Lagreca← Adrián Rosell

70'

Esteban Aparicio

73'

David Ruiz← Borja Alonso

73'

Álvaro Aguirre← Hugo Navarro

84'

Ferrán Ruiz← Miguel Romera

84'

Chema Andrés← Loren Zúñiga

84'

Ángel Carvajal← Andrés Campos

89'

Camacho← Raúl Espinosa

89'

Martín Domínguez← Álvaro Narbona

Real

Móstoles

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Pau Quesada

40'▲David Cuenca←▼Jaime Calleja

73'▲David Ruiz←▼Borja Alonso

84'▲Ferrán Ruiz←▼Miguel Romera

84'▲Chema Andrés←▼Loren Zúñiga

84'▲Ángel Carvajal←▼Andrés Campos

Real Madrid III substitutes

CuencaRuizRuizAndrésCarvajal

Manager: Víctor González

68'▲S. Lagreca←▼Adrián Rosell

73'▲Álvaro Aguirre←▼Hugo Navarro

89'▲Camacho←▼Raúl Espinosa

89'▲Martín Domínguez←▼Álvaro Narbona

Móstoles substitutes

LagrecaAguirreCamachoDomínguez