Móstoles 0–0 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

Móstoles

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Móstoles37%

×Draw28%

Real Madrid III35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Móstoles

1.21

Real Madrid III

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.35

1.01

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

65%

Móstoles or Real Madrid III

72%

Draw or Real Madrid III

63%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

16%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

70%

Móstoles 2+ goals

34%

Móstoles 3+ goals

12%

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

69%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

33%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

51%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Móstoles scores more

37%

level

28%

Real Madrid III scores more

35%

Móstoles at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Camacho← S. Lagreca

71'

Yeray Lancha← Ángel Carvajal

71'

Carlis← Antonio Moreno

77'

Adrián Rosell← Mario del Campo

77'

Hugo Navarro← Rober Mañas

85'

Samu Exposito← Manuel Marquez

Móstoles

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Víctor González

56'▲Camacho←▼S. Lagreca

77'▲Adrián Rosell←▼Mario del Campo

77'▲Hugo Navarro←▼Rober Mañas

Móstoles substitutes

CamachoRosellNavarro

Manager: Pau Quesada

71'▲Yeray Lancha←▼Ángel Carvajal

71'▲Carlis←▼Antonio Moreno

85'▲Samu Exposito←▼Manuel Marquez

Real Madrid III substitutes

LanchaCarlisExposito