Real Madrid III 6–0 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Real Madrid III

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Las Rozas

1/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III60%

×Draw24%

Las Rozas16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.76

Real Madrid III

1.72

Las Rozas

0.76

Real Madrid III creates 126% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

2.29

creates per match

1.23

0.29

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Real Madrid III

2.29

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Real Madrid III

0.29

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Las Rozas →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw

84%

Real Madrid III or Las Rozas

76%

Draw or Las Rozas

40%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

34%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

82%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

51%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

25%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

53%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

18%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

79%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Madrid III scores more

60%

level

24%

Las Rozas scores more

16%

Real Madrid III at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Las Rozas

Real Madrid III beat Las Rozas 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.

Real Madrid III vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Madrid III vs Las Rozas