Las Rozas 0–1 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Las Rozas37%

×Draw27%

Real Madrid III36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.24

Las Rozas

1.27

Real Madrid III

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

1.35

1.13

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

64%

Las Rozas or Real Madrid III

73%

Draw or Real Madrid III

63%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

16%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

72%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

36%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

14%

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

71%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

35%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

51%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Las Rozas scores more

37%

level

27%

Real Madrid III scores more

36%

Las Rozas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Real Madrid III

Real Madrid III beat Las Rozas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.

Las Rozas vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Real Madrid III