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Real Madrid III vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
2/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III73%
×Draw19%
Colonia Moscardó8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
2.00
Colonia Moscardó
0.49

Real Madrid III creates 308% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
92%
Real Madrid III or Colonia Moscardó
81%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
27%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
47%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
86%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
59%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
32%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
39%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
9%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
90%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.00

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
73%
level
19%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
8%

Real Madrid III at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid III 2 – 0 Colonia Moscardó

Real Madrid III beat Colonia Moscardó 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.