Colonia Moscardó 1–2 Real Madrid III

Colonia Moscardó

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Madrid III

9/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Colonia Moscardó23%

×Draw26%

Real Madrid III51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colonia MoscardóExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.54

Colonia Moscardó

0.95

Real Madrid III

1.54

Real Madrid III creates 62% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

1.14

creates per match

1.35

1.73

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.14

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.73

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw

49%

Colonia Moscardó or Real Madrid III

74%

Draw or Real Madrid III

77%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

61%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

25%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

79%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

45%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

31%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more

23%

level

26%

Real Madrid III scores more

51%

Real Madrid III at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff