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Real Madrid III vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III59%
×Draw24%
Alcorcón II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid III
1.70
Alcorcón II
0.78

Real Madrid III creates 118% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 97 away

creates per match

Real Madrid III
2.29
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Real Madrid III
0.29
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw
83%
Real Madrid III or Alcorcón II
76%
Draw or Alcorcón II
41%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+
33%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals
82%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
51%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
24%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
54%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
18%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
78%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.70

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Madrid III scores more
59%
level
24%
Alcorcón II scores more
17%

Real Madrid III at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Madrid III 1 – 0 Alcorcón II

Real Madrid III beat Alcorcón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.