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Alcorcón II vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Madrid III
Real Madrid III
4/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alcorcón II35%
×Draw29%
Real Madrid III36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.12
Real Madrid III
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Real Madrid III
1.35

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Real Madrid III
0.76

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Real Madrid III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
64%
Alcorcón II or Real Madrid III
71%
Draw or Real Madrid III
65%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
14%
Real Madrid III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
67%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
31%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
10%
Real Madrid III 1+ goals
68%
Real Madrid III 2+ goals
32%
Real Madrid III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
49%
Real Madrid III (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.12

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
35%
level
29%
Real Madrid III scores more
36%

Real Madrid III at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcón II 1 – 1 Real Madrid III

Alcorcón II and Real Madrid III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.