Real Madrid III 1–1 AD Parla: Result & Stats

Real Madrid III

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AD Parla

4/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid III69%

×Draw20%

AD Parla11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchAD Parla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.64

Real Madrid III

1.97

AD Parla

0.64

Real Madrid III creates 208% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

2.29

creates per match

0.99

0.29

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Real Madrid III

2.29

AD Parla

0.99

allows per match

Real Madrid III

0.29

AD Parla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid III ↓

AD Parla →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Madrid III or draw

89%

Real Madrid III or AD Parla

80%

Draw or AD Parla

31%

Winning margin

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

43%

AD Parla wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

86%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

58%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

31%

AD Parla 1+ goals

47%

AD Parla 2+ goals

14%

AD Parla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

86%

AD Parla (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid III at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid III attack 2.29 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Real Madrid III defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Madrid III scores more

69%

level

20%

AD Parla scores more

11%

Real Madrid III at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Madrid III 1–1 AD Parla

Real Madrid III and AD Parla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Real Madrid Campo 7 in Madrid.

Real Madrid III vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Real Madrid III 1–1 AD Parla