AD Parla 1–0 Real Madrid III: Result & Stats

AD Parla

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid III

Figueroa 77'

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AD Parla26%

×Draw28%

Real Madrid III47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD ParlaExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.35

AD Parla

0.92

Real Madrid III

1.35

Real Madrid III creates 47% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

1.08

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

AD Parla

1.08

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

AD Parla

1.35

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw

53%

AD Parla or Real Madrid III

72%

Draw or Real Madrid III

74%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals

60%

AD Parla 2+ goals

23%

AD Parla 3+ goals

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

74%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

39%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)

35%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

AD Parla scores more

26%

level

28%

Real Madrid III scores more

47%

Real Madrid III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Álex Alemán← Yeray Lancha

60'

Ángel Carvajal← Borja Alonso

60'

Manu Serrano← Andrés Campos

63'

Clinton← Mora

75'

Cañas← More

77'

Figueroa

85'

Víctor Costa← D. Ayuch

85'

Robert← Álex Cano

86'

Andrés García← David Ruiz

86'

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Jesús López

63'▲Clinton←▼Mora

75'▲Cañas←▼More

85'▲Víctor Costa←▼D. Ayuch

85'▲Robert←▼Álex Cano

AD Parla substitutes

ClintonCañasCostaRobert

Manager: Pau Quesada

46'▲Álex Alemán←▼Yeray Lancha

60'▲Ángel Carvajal←▼Borja Alonso

60'▲Manu Serrano←▼Andrés Campos

86'▲Andrés García←▼David Ruiz

86'▲Carlis←▼Ferrán Ruiz

Real Madrid III substitutes

AlemánCarvajalSerranoGarcíaCarlis

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 1–0 Real Madrid III

AD Parla beat Real Madrid III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 17, 2023.

Goals: Figueroa (77').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.

AD Parla vs Real Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 1–0 Real Madrid III