Real Madrid II 3–1 Peña Deportiva: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Peña Deportiva

1/26/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Madrid II56%

×Draw23%

Peña Deportiva21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchPeña Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

Real Madrid II

1.77

Peña Deportiva

0.99

Real Madrid II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

1.14

0.85

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Peña Deportiva

1.14

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Peña Deportiva

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Peña Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

79%

Real Madrid II or Peña Deportiva

77%

Draw or Peña Deportiva

44%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

31%

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

83%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

53%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

26%

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

63%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

26%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

73%

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

56%

level

23%

Peña Deportiva scores more

21%

Real Madrid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff