Peña Deportiva 2–0 Real Madrid II: Result & Stats

Peña Deportiva

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Madrid II

9/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva49%

×Draw24%

Real Madrid II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña DeportivaExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

Peña Deportiva

1.75

Real Madrid II

1.23

Peña Deportiva creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

1.93

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Peña Deportiva

1.93

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Peña Deportiva

1.00

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw

73%

Peña Deportiva or Real Madrid II

76%

Draw or Real Madrid II

51%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

27%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

83%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

52%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

25%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

35%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

65%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more

49%

level

24%

Real Madrid II scores more

27%

Peña Deportiva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff