Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Madrid II vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melilla
Melilla
8/27/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II66%
×Draw22%
Melilla12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.85
Melilla
0.65

Real Madrid II creates 185% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Melilla
0.37

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Melilla
1.74

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
88%
Real Madrid II or Melilla
78%
Draw or Melilla
34%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
40%
Melilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
84%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
55%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
28%
Melilla 1+ goals
48%
Melilla 2+ goals
14%
Melilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
84%
Melilla (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Melilla attack 0.37 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
66%
level
22%
Melilla scores more
12%

Real Madrid II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Melilla

Real Madrid II and Melilla drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.