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Melilla vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
CANC
22:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Melilla40%
×Draw28%
Real Madrid II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.25
Real Madrid II
1.09

Melilla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Real Madrid II
1.47

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Real Madrid II
1.57

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
68%
Melilla or Real Madrid II
72%
Draw or Real Madrid II
60%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
18%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
71%
Melilla 2+ goals
36%
Melilla 3+ goals
13%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
30%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
55%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Melilla scores more
40%
level
28%
Real Madrid II scores more
32%

Melilla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Melilla face Real Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Melilla hosting Real Madrid II. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Melilla host Real Madrid II at Estadio Álvarez Claro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.