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Real Madrid II vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Linense
Linense
3/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II61%
×Draw24%
Linense15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.67
Linense
0.70

Real Madrid II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Linense
0.47

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Linense
1.37

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
85%
Real Madrid II or Linense
76%
Draw or Linense
39%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
34%
Linense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
81%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
50%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
23%
Linense 1+ goals
50%
Linense 2+ goals
16%
Linense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
80%
Linense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Linense attack 0.47 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
61%
level
24%
Linense scores more
15%

Real Madrid II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Madrid II 1–1 Linense

Real Madrid II and Linense drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.