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Linense vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
3/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense39%
×Draw26%
Real Madrid II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.34
Real Madrid II
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Real Madrid II
1.47

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Real Madrid II
1.57

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Linense or draw
65%
Linense or Real Madrid II
74%
Draw or Real Madrid II
61%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
18%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
74%
Linense 2+ goals
39%
Linense 3+ goals
15%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
36%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
53%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Linense scores more
39%
level
26%
Real Madrid II scores more
35%

Linense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linense 1–2 Real Madrid II

Real Madrid II beat Linense 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.