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Real Madrid II vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
2/27/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Madrid II56%
×Draw22%
Linares Deportivo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.89
Linares Deportivo
1.08

Real Madrid II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.96
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.93
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
79%
Real Madrid II or Linares Deportivo
78%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
44%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
32%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
56%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
29%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
66%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
29%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
72%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
56%
level
22%
Linares Deportivo scores more
21%

Real Madrid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Linares Deportivo

Real Madrid II beat Linares Deportivo 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.