Linares Deportivo 2–1 Real Madrid II

Linares Deportivo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Madrid II

9/9/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Linares Deportivo45%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.87

Linares Deportivo

1.23

Real Madrid II

0.87

Linares Deportivo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.18

creates per match

0.98

0.76

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

1.18

Real Madrid II

0.98

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.76

Real Madrid II

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

74%

Linares Deportivo or Real Madrid II

71%

Draw or Real Madrid II

55%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

20%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

71%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

35%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

13%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

58%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

22%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

63%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.18 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

45%

level

29%

Real Madrid II scores more

26%

Linares Deportivo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff