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Real Madrid II vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Getafe II
Getafe II
10/25/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Madrid II52%
×Draw26%
Getafe II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.54
Getafe II
0.90

Real Madrid II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
2.00
Getafe II
0.62

allows per match

Real Madrid II
1.17
Getafe II
1.08

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
78%
Real Madrid II or Getafe II
74%
Draw or Getafe II
48%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
27%
Getafe II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
79%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
45%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
20%
Getafe II 1+ goals
59%
Getafe II 2+ goals
23%
Getafe II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
70%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 2.00 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Real Madrid II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
52%
level
26%
Getafe II scores more
22%

Real Madrid II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Getafe II

Getafe II beat Real Madrid II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.