Real Madrid II 3–0 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Getafe II

12/15/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Madrid II55%

×Draw25%

Getafe II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.85

Real Madrid II

1.60

Getafe II

0.85

Real Madrid II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

0.86

0.85

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.62

Getafe II

0.86

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.85

Getafe II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

80%

Real Madrid II or Getafe II

75%

Draw or Getafe II

45%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

29%

Getafe II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

80%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

47%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

22%

Getafe II 1+ goals

57%

Getafe II 2+ goals

21%

Getafe II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

73%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

55%

level

25%

Getafe II scores more

20%

Real Madrid II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff