Real Madrid II 3–0 Barcelona B: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcelona B

Sergio Arribas 90+5' (pen)

Iker Bravo 78'

Carlos Dotor 20'

6/11/2023

Primera División RFEF - Play Offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Madrid II69%

×Draw20%

Barcelona B12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.67

Real Madrid II

2.00

Barcelona B

0.67

Real Madrid II creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Real Madrid II

2.00

Barcelona B

1.00

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.33

Barcelona B

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

88%

Real Madrid II or Barcelona B

80%

Draw or Barcelona B

31%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

43%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

86%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

59%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

32%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

49%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

15%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

86%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 2.00 + Barcelona B defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Barcelona B attack 1.00 + Real Madrid II defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

69%

level

20%

Barcelona B scores more

12%

Real Madrid II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Carlos Dotor

36'

E. Pedrola

45'

N. Paz Martinez

59'

Gonzalo García← Á. Rodríguez

59'

Sergio Arribas← N. Paz

66'

Lamine Yamal← Estanis

73'

Iker Bravo← Álvaro Martín

73'

75'

75'

78'

82'

A. Nunez

83'

Txus Alba← Aleix Garrido

90+3'

R. Dionkou

90+6'

90+5'

Sergio ArribasPenalty

Real

Barcelona

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl

59'▲Gonzalo García←▼Á. Rodríguez

59'▲Sergio Arribas←▼N. Paz

73'▲Iker Bravo←▼Álvaro Martín

73'▲Óscar Aranda←▼Peter

Real Madrid II substitutes

GarcíaArribasBravoArandaPujolVillarCañizaresÁngelObradorNakaiTobiasLeiva

Manager: R. Márquez

66'▲Lamine Yamal←▼Estanis

83'▲Txus Alba←▼Aleix Garrido

Barcelona B substitutes

YamalAlbaZalayaVicensKochenBlancoRománRuizFernándezVegaRosanasGuiu

Primera División RFEF - Play Offs: Real Madrid II 3–0 Barcelona B

Real Madrid II beat Barcelona B 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Play Offs on June 11, 2023.

Goals: Carlos Dotor (20'), Iker Bravo (78'), Sergio Arribas (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid II vs Barcelona B — Primera División RFEF - Play Offs 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Play Offs: Real Madrid II 3–0 Barcelona B