Real Madrid II 0–0 Barcelona B: Result & Stats

Real Madrid II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona B

10/16/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Madrid II53%

×Draw24%

Barcelona B23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.01

Real Madrid II

1.67

Barcelona B

1.01

Real Madrid II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.96

creates per match

1.08

0.93

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Real Madrid II

1.96

Barcelona B

1.08

allows per match

Real Madrid II

0.93

Barcelona B

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw

77%

Real Madrid II or Barcelona B

76%

Draw or Barcelona B

47%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

28%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

81%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

50%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

23%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

64%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

27%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

70%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.96 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Barcelona B attack 1.08 + Real Madrid II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Madrid II scores more

53%

level

24%

Barcelona B scores more

23%

Real Madrid II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Sola

46'

Moussa Ndiaye← Arnau Solà

52'

M. Gutierrez

56'

A. Ezzalzouli← Antonio Aranda

60'

A. Blanco

65'

P. Gonzalez

68'

Latasa← A. Guðjohnsen

68'

Marvin← Peter

72'

M. Gila

80'

Theo Zidane← Carlos Dotor

81'

O. Aranda

83'

Nils Mortimer← Ferran Jutglà

88'

Matheus Pereira← Lucas de Vega

90+3'

J. Latasa

Real

Barcelona

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl

68'▲Latasa←▼A. Guðjohnsen

68'▲Marvin←▼Peter

80'▲Theo Zidane←▼Carlos Dotor

Real Madrid II substitutes

LatasaMarvinZidaneGonzálezPujolJardíLópezObradorRetu

Manager: Sergi Barjuan

46'▲Moussa Ndiaye←▼Arnau Solà

56'▲A. Ezzalzouli←▼Antonio Aranda

83'▲Nils Mortimer←▼Ferran Jutglà

88'▲Matheus Pereira←▼Lucas de Vega

Barcelona B substitutes

NdiayeEzzalzouliMortimerPereiraEscobarCarevićRamos