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Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
2/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Madrid II39%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Madrid II
1.18
Alcorcon
1.05

Real Madrid II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Madrid II
1.62
Alcorcon
1.26

allows per match

Real Madrid II
0.85
Alcorcon
0.74

finishing

Real Madrid II+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid II ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Madrid II or draw
68%
Real Madrid II or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
61%

Winning margin

Real Madrid II wins by 2+
16%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Madrid II 1+ goals
69%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
33%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
12%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
65%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
28%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
55%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 53 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid II attack 1.62 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.18

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + Real Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Madrid II scores more
39%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
32%

Real Madrid II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Madrid II vs Alcorcon

Real Madrid II and Alcorcon drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.