Alcorcon 4–1 Real Madrid II: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Real Madrid II

10/2/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon51%

×Draw26%

Real Madrid II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.97

Alcorcon

1.55

Real Madrid II

0.97

Alcorcon creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

1.53

creates per match

1.47

0.47

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Alcorcon

1.53

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Alcorcon

0.47

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

76%

Alcorcon or Real Madrid II

74%

Draw or Real Madrid II

49%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

26%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

79%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

46%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

20%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

62%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

25%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

68%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.53 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Alcorcon defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcorcon scores more

51%

level

26%

Real Madrid II scores more

24%

Alcorcon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Alcorcon 4–1 Real Madrid II

Alcorcon beat Real Madrid II 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.

Alcorcon vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Alcorcon 4–1 Real Madrid II