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Real Koyari vs Nacional — Division di Honor 2019

Real Koyari
Real Koyari
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 4
Nacional
Nacional
3/20/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Real Koyari5%
×Draw7%
Nacional88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Koyari
1.13
Nacional
4.55

Nacional creates 303% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 61 away

creates per match

Real Koyari
0.70
Nacional
2.21

allows per match

Real Koyari
6.90
Nacional
1.56

finishing

Real Koyari+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Koyari ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Real Koyari or draw
12%
Real Koyari or Nacional
93%
Draw or Nacional
95%

Winning margin

Real Koyari wins by 2+
2%
Nacional wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

Real Koyari 1+ goals
68%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
31%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
11%
Nacional 1+ goals
99%
Nacional 2+ goals
93%
Nacional 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

Real Koyari (draw refunded)
5%
Nacional (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Koyari at home — creates 0.70, concedes 6.90 · 10 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Koyari attack 0.70 + Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nacional attack 2.21 + Real Koyari defence 6.90 → ÷2 → 4.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Real Koyari scores more
5%
level
7%
Nacional scores more
88%

Nacional at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Koyari vs Nacional

Nacional beat Real Koyari 7-1 in Division di Honor on March 20, 2026.