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Nacional vs Real Koyari — Division di Honor 2019

Nacional
Nacional
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Koyari
Real Koyari
5/3/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nacional85%
×Draw9%
Real Koyari6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
4.27
Real Koyari
1.21

Nacional creates 253% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nacional
3.10
Real Koyari
0.78

allows per match

Nacional
1.65
Real Koyari
5.44

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
Real Koyari+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Real Koyari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
94%
Nacional or Real Koyari
91%
Draw or Real Koyari
15%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
70%
Real Koyari wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
98%
Nacional 2+ goals
91%
Nacional 3+ goals
77%
Real Koyari 1+ goals
70%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
34%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
93%
Real Koyari (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Real Koyari away — creates 0.78, concedes 5.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + Real Koyari defence 5.44 → ÷2 → 4.27

Real Koyari attack 0.78 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Nacional scores more
85%
level
9%
Real Koyari scores more
6%

Nacional at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Nacional 7–0 Real Koyari

Nacional beat Real Koyari 7-0 in Division di Honor on May 3, 2026.