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Real Kashmir vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Real Kashmir
Real Kashmir
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
NEROCA
NEROCA
3/15/2022I-LeagueI-League · Round 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Kashmir54%
×Draw23%
NEROCA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Kashmir
1.87
NEROCA
1.17

Real Kashmir creates 60% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Kashmir
1.63
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Real Kashmir
1.15
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Real Kashmir+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Kashmir ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Kashmir or draw
76%
Real Kashmir or NEROCA
77%
Draw or NEROCA
46%

Winning margin

Real Kashmir wins by 2+
30%
NEROCA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Kashmir 1+ goals
85%
Real Kashmir 2+ goals
56%
Real Kashmir 3+ goals
29%
NEROCA 1+ goals
69%
NEROCA 2+ goals
33%
NEROCA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)
69%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Kashmir at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Kashmir attack 1.63 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.87

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Kashmir scores more
54%
level
23%
NEROCA scores more
24%

Real Kashmir at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Real Kashmir 3–3 NEROCA

Real Kashmir and NEROCA drew 3-3 in I-League on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.